Election night clues

I've been following the presidential polls more closely recently and here's my take on what to look for on election night.

As of 3 November, CNN has President Obama with a lead in the electoral college, and classifies the following eastern states as "toss-ups": New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. Almost all the analysts believe that Governor Romney must take at least two of these states to have any chance of winning. They also point out that no Republican has ever won the election without carrying Ohio.

Note that although I'm using the CNN map below, others (Rasmussen, Real Clear Politics) pretty much agree with this assessment. Here's the map:

Map courtesy CNN

Looking only at the toss-up states (I'm making a large assumption that each candidate will hold onto the states that are either safe for them or leaning towards them), currently:

• All of the polls in New Hampshire show President Obama with a small (2-5 point) but stable lead.
• All of the polls in Virginia show President Obama with a 3-5 point lead.
• In Florida, things are more confused. Three polls show President Obama with a 2-point lead, while one poll shows Governor Romney with a 6-point lead.
• All the polls show President Obama with a lead in Ohio.

So, when the returns start to come in, watch these four eastern states. They'll be your clue as to how the night will go.

• If Governor Romney takes all four states, that gives him 270 electoral votes, and he wins. That's pretty far-fetched, given the polls I mentioned earlier.
• Governor Romney needs to win three of these four toss-up states to have any chance. If Governor Romney takes Florida and Virgina, he still has a small chance. But he'll also need to win almost all of the other tossup states. If he also takes Ohio, that will help him a lot.
• If Governor Romney loses three of the four states, the election is over.

Wednesday morning update

Obama won the election and took New Hampshire, Virginia, and Ohio. Things are too close to call in Florida, but Obama leads there as well.

If Obama holds his lead in Florida (most of the uncounted ballots are from in Dade County, which leans heavily towards Obama, so it looks like he'll win that state), Obama took all of the toss-up states. Impressive.