The unemployment records of Presidents Reagan and Obama

In my previous post, I demonstrated that the unemployment record of President Obama at this point (October) in his first term is better than that of his predecessor. But what about the unemployment record of President Reagan? There are many references to the "Reagan miracle"  - conservatives frequently cite the Reagan tax cuts as a model for how to create full employment. So here's the comparison.

The Reagan record

Unemployment was 7.4% at the end of February 1981, President Reagan's first full month in office. In October 1984, thanks to those by now famous tax cuts, unemployment had fallen all the way to ... wait for it ... 7.4%. That's right. At this point in President Reagan's first term, unemployment was exactly where it was at the end of his first full month in office. Here's a graph of the unemployment rates for his first term.

Unemployment in Reagan's first term

The Obama record

Here's the same graph for President Obama's first term thus far.

Unemployment in Obama's first term

Unemployment was 8.3% at the end of President Obama's first full month in office (February 2009), and lower (7.8%) now.

President Reagan did have to deal with a high inflation rate during his first term, but the recession during that term was both shorter and milder than this one. Despite that, and despite those famous Reagan tax cuts, unemployment at this point in President Reagan 's first term was the same as after his first full month in office. And despite the longer, more severe recession, unemployment at this point in President Obama's first term is lower than after his first full month in office.

If we line up their starting points (the end of their respective first full months in office), here's what we get this:

First term unemployment for Reagan (blue) and Obama (pink)

The conclusions are inescapable. Despite a longer, more severe recession, President Obama kept unemployment lower than President Reagan, and actually ended with unemployment slightly better than President Reagan.

Should we start calling this the Obama miracle?